{"id":124,"date":"2021-08-27T03:40:21","date_gmt":"2021-08-27T03:40:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/greenshedguys.com\/?p=124"},"modified":"2021-08-27T04:01:31","modified_gmt":"2021-08-27T04:01:31","slug":"guy-1-picks-week-0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/greenshedguys.com\/?p=124","title":{"rendered":"Guy #1 Picks: Week 0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Football has ARRIVED!!!! Football is undoubtedly the best sport on the planet. I say undoubtedly for a couple of reasons: it’s “without doubt” and I looked up the word to make sure it means what I think it means. If you disagree with me, that’s cool. I’d love to hear about it. I’ve got just the link<\/span><\/a> for you. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We started posting our picks a year ago via twitter. Your guy here went 65% btw… (“not a big deal” look it up if you don’t believe me). Twitter was nice and easy but we wanted to spruce things up this year. One of the “spruces” we’ll be providing this year is a little more detail to our picks. Believe it or not, there’s a method to our madness. At least for me and G3; G2 is kind of a wildcard. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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I’m promising the friends of the Shed a few things this year. I will set a goal<\/strong> to be better<\/strong> than last year. I expect<\/strong> to win and if I don’t, I’ll still enjoy it<\/strong>. Especially if the other guys do well and we all eat<\/strong><\/a>. <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

I guess that’s enough fluff. Let’s get to the picks<\/strong><\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nebraska -6.5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Look, it’s week 0 and none of the models have enough data for me to have much confidence in them. But I’m too hungry for football and I can still resort to some “traditional” methods. The sharps and the money are on Illinois, every personality I’ve heard is on Illinois, and the line is moving towards Illinois. So naturally… I like Nebraska. I find it hard to believe that the significantly more talented roster will lose this game. Maybe everyone’s looking at the 41-23 beatdown the Illini delivered last year. Fair. But did you know the Illini didn’t have a single TD drive that took longer than 4 minutes? Probably not. Did you know the Cornhuskers turned the ball over 5 times? Maybe. Either way I don’t think any of these are happening again. I think talent wins the day in this one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nebraska v. Illinois U55<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Remember all that stuff I said about last years game being kinda weird? Fast scoring and lots of turnovers. I’m picturing the Bernie Sanders meme but instead of asking you, Bernie’s telling you “I am once again telling you, 2020 NEB vs. ILL will not happen again.” This is the Big10 we’re talking about here. Run the ball, time of possession, protect the ball, bend but don’t break defenses. UNDER<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also, a good chunk of the money is on ILL and the over. Some would say this is a bad sign for the reigning champ. So let’s just hope Vegas has a good day Saturday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hawaii v. UCLA O68<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I would love to have a good model for this one. The models certainly do not agree with each other. I’ve decided that all the models going under for this game don’t have the right data yet and all the ones on the over do. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I usually hate betting based on historical games. You may have read my last pick. But, Hawaii somehow always outperforms in it’s first game. Even when they’re off the island and thousands of miles away from home. So instead of taking the Rainbow Warriors here, I’m taking the over. I think UCLA is very good but I waited too long to get a favorable number. So instead… I’ll take the over and root for points!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New Mexico State +10<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Okay… not going to lie on this one. The models all had the Aggies to keep it close so I took the points. Soon after, I learned New Mexico is one of the worst teams in CFB so I’m kind of stuck. This game will be a good indication of how to treat models early in the football season. If for some reason you’re tailing my card. I’d proceed with caution. I know, not exactly what you’d like to hear from your guy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UTEP v. New Mexico State U56.5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This may be a shocker, but the model also loved the under in this match-up. You know how I said New Mexico State was one of the worst teams in CFB? Well, UTEP doesn’t appear to be a SEC sleeper cell hiding in Conference USA (of which they finished second to last in 2020). Two teams that rank in the 100s in points per game, face off… I’ll sweat the under.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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