{"id":198,"date":"2021-09-07T20:44:38","date_gmt":"2021-09-07T20:44:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/greenshedguys.com\/?p=198"},"modified":"2021-09-07T20:44:38","modified_gmt":"2021-09-07T20:44:38","slug":"guy-1-picks-week-1-recap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/greenshedguys.com\/?p=198","title":{"rendered":"Guy #1 Picks: Week 1 Recap"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Helluva week for your Guy G1! Got back into the green with an 8-3 week ATS. Turning it around after a lackluster start to the year<\/strong><\/span><\/a> in week 0<\/span>.<\/a> The FDC continues to be an issue.<\/strong><\/span><\/a> But hey… picking games is all about making money. As long as I stay in the green, I think I could live with an obnoxiously “bright” orange door in my backyard. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The model is still picking up strength. A good portion of my success last week was manually overriding the model. The pure model picks are hitting at a 44%. I’m not worried about that… yet. However, I will continue to view the model with a skeptical eye for a bit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here’s my recap of my week 1 picks: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

East Carolina Vrs Appalachian State U55.5 – W<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not going to lie, Chase Brice looked really good. For a minute there, I was putting together my Chase Brice apology tour. Thankfully for my wallet, the App State defense looked like the best unit on the field. The under got a bit sweaty at a few points in the game – like the Hall Mary attempt at the half and ECU running the hurry-up when down 21. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Laying the points points may have been the easy winner but I still think the under was the right call. Friend of the Shed @buckmetrics<\/strong><\/span><\/a> brings up a good point: Slicing up ECU may not be the best test for Brice. App State is an interesting team to keep an eye one. Could be a good “under team” this year if the offense can’t put it together against better opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Duke Vrs Charlotte U60.5 – W<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bernie Strikes again!!!<\/strong><\/span><\/a> So far he’s 2-0 on the season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As hard as these teams tried to push this over. The balancing powers of college football wouldn’t let that happen. If you didn’t watch this game, you missed out. This game may not make it to ESPNU’s top 25 games of 2021, but it was electric. It’s going to be hard to summarize in a few sentences but I’ll give it a try. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This game was very evenly matched. There were 6 lead changes as the teams constantly traded touchdowns. Normally this is the perfect game script for an over. In this case, the pace was very slow and in-between the touchdowns were scoreless drives. With 3 minutes left in the game, Charlotte took a 3 point lead and I got very worried. A 3 minute FG drive from Duke would have sent the game to overtime and an almost certain over. Instead of a field goal, Duke busted a 53 yard TD run. It was the first time I can remember cheering for a touchdown while holding an under ticket. The under wasn’t quite out of the woods as I would be in the same position a minute later. This time, the 49’ners held off the Blue Devils. 31-28 final. Yup that makes 59 points \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FDC: Wake Forest -31 – W<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I couldn’t watch this game… thanks Xfinity. Even an hour long call with my cable provider couldn’t get the ACC on my cable package. I probably spent too much effort researching ways around this. But after some soul searching, I decided to trust my favorite pick and follow with theScore app. This game didn’t need to be babysat…. right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wrong. From what I can tell, Wake dominated the game but at the same time they only won the game 42-10. Yup that makes 32 points \ud83d\ude42 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

FDC: Penn State Vrs. Wisconsin O50 – L<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still haven’t hit on an over. It seems like they’ve been scarce. But still, you’d think I could’ve found one by now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This was the only pick I got made fun of for this weekend. For good reason I guess. When it is 0-0 at the half, you better start praying for OT. Great game to watch, terrible game to be left with the over bag. Should’ve gone with the gut on this one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kansas State -3 – W<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Big 12 homer in me was smiling ear-to-ear watching K-State dominate this game. K-State had a good mix of sustained drives and big plays. Stanford on the other hand, looked stagnant the whole game. We’ll have to watch these teams going forward to see if Stanford stinks or if K-State could challenge in the Big 12. Maybe it’ll be a bit of both. Either way, this was an easy winner this weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FDC: West Virginia -3 – L<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both these teams looked good. Maryland looked better. Maryland did a great job putting their skilled players in space. This allowed runners to get to full speed at the point of contact. During the fist quarter, I was worried this game would get out of hand if West Virginia doesn’t make some adjustments. West Virginia’s ball pursuit improved and the game slowed down. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maryland dominated the box score and West Virginia had some poorly timed turnovers. The home dog deserved the win in this one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cincinnati -23 – W<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every once in a while I get things right. To no one’s surprise, Cincinnati held to Miami-Ohio to 14 points. But like I said… the Bearcats offense showed out. They alone pushed the Vegas point total of 49. Even with a trash-time touchdown, Cincy coasted to a 35 point victory. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

FDC: Alabama -19.5 – W<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s pretty hard to pat yourself on the back with this one. I’m sure this is what it felt like for all the people on the PSU\/WISC under. Everybody and their grandma had Bama in this one. For the 3 people who were holding Miami +19.5, I know how it feels… <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iowa -4 – W<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I made some strong statements about this game.<\/strong><\/span><\/a> The woulda-shoulda-coulda in me is kicking myself for not putting this one in the Front Door Cup. Oh well… I’ll take the money and be satisfied with being right. Thanks again Big 10!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FDC: Clemson -3 – L<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another great, low scoring game. Georgia looked like the better team all game. The average Clemson bettor would cry and tell you the pick six cost you this game. I being the superior loser, would tell you Georgia wins this game in OT if the game ends 3-3. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Side note: If I weren’t such a superior loser, I’d be salty about having to bet this game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kent State Vrs. Texas A&M U65.5 – W<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I love me some Jimbo! Me and G2 sniffed this game out from a mile away. Jimbo was not about to put up 50. A&M was in complete control of the total. And wouldn’t ya know it… he played it slow and cashed the under with ease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You could @ on me for not trusting Jimbo cover a huge number. Here’s a direct line<\/span><\/a><\/strong>. But, I was resting easy as Kent State attempted a field goal to cover with seconds left. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Helluva week for your Guy G1! Got back into the green with an 8-3 week ATS. Turning it around after a lackluster start to the year in week 0. The FDC continues to be an issue. But hey… picking games […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":201,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-198","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gambling","category-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/greenshedguys.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/198","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/greenshedguys.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/greenshedguys.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greenshedguys.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greenshedguys.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=198"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/greenshedguys.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/198\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":214,"href":"https:\/\/greenshedguys.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/198\/revisions\/214"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greenshedguys.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/201"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/greenshedguys.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=198"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greenshedguys.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=198"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greenshedguys.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=198"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}