Like I said, last week we had a “minor setback.” This week will bring a “major comeback.”

Today was a great day. On my drive home from work, there was an overwhelming urge to turn the sports talk radio and play some pump-up music. I switched to the music app and searched for my current go-to, “Bang!” by AJR, and it was game on. About three or four songs in (may have replayed “Bang!” in that stretch), I was getting high school football pre-game bus ride vibes. I was vibing out so hard I was ready to put some pads on and play safety for App State. Which would be terrible for my first pick.

Getting back on track… We’ve got so many games this week. Even Thursday and Friday are stacked. When I first ran the model for week 1, I was staring at 84 games and a lot of picks the model liked. This didn’t scare me one bit. I let the model kick my ass last week so I have just the right level of skepticism to find winners.

Here’s what I found in the early slate:

East Carolina Vrs Appalachian State U55.5

I feel mean saying this. I’m fading Chase Brice. App State was one of my favorite teams last year. They rarely covered last year. But when they did, I had em. And I only lost on them once. When I first ran the model, App State -10ish looked like a good pick. I was ready to hop back on the train. I don’t remember ECU being great so I was ready to roll with the Mountaineers. Then… it took about 0.69 seconds of research to discover my beloved Mountaineers were being led by Chase Brice. Maybe I’ll be wrong. I’ve certainly been wrong before. Matter of fact, you only have to go back 7 whole days to find some good examples. But then again… maybe I’m right. I get the feeling the game will be sloppy and stagnant. UNDER

Duke Vrs Charlotte U60.5

I think both teams are bad. 247 Sports talent composite has them listed at 62 and 88 respectively. Neither one of the teams is bad enough to let the other one roll them. “But what about Duke’s 53-19 smackdown they laid on Charlotte?” Good question. I lost some money on that game last year. But, do you remember what our good friend Bernie told us last week? It’s not going to happen again. Charlotte got exposed numerous times. There were tons of TD drives less than 4 minutes. Look it up. I think Charlotte puts it together this year and keeps it somewhat close; but more importantly, they slow the game down.

FDC: Wake Forest -31

This one’s a Front Door Cup pick and one of my favorites for the week. I like Wake to blowout. Wake plays fast. They averaged 81.2 plays per game last year (6th in the country). I suspect they’re going to need about 50 of them to cover the 31 points. But I’ll take the other 30 as some nice “lagniappe” to push me over the edge. I don’t think Wake’s an amazing team. I just think they’re significantly better than an Old Dominion team at the bottom of Conference USA. Oh yeah and btw… Old Dominion didn’t play in 2020. Give me the Demon Deacons to cover.