It’s time to park it in the Shed today and let the 4 TV screens go to work. Looking at the slate, there should be no problems filling out the screens with something good to watch.
Like the title indicates, this is the second installment of my picks. If you missed out on part 1, that’s unfortunate. The weeknight games were kind to me this week. A few nail-biters that I’ll recap next week. This week was mostly model driven picks. I’ll make sure to call out the times I hit the manual override.
I’ll be working my hardest today to will the rest of my picks to the winners circle:
FDC: Penn State Vrs. Wisconsin O50
Model really likes the over. Not going to lie, everything about this game shouts under. Big 10, noon kickoff, Wisconsin… But I figured it was time to put bias aside and trust the model.
The model has too much variance on the spread for me, so I’ll go with the Over.
Kansas State -3
Big 12 homer pick on this one. The model results for this game would tell me to stay away. Not enough value on either team. But I think Kansas State will be the better team in this one. I think the Kansas State fans will be more willing to travel to Jerry World.
So in a close match-up, give me the “home team” to win by 3 or more.
FDC: West Virginia -3
Not a Big 12 homer pick. This was one of the picks highlighted by the model. Maryland has been a talented team that can’t quite put it together on the field. They’ve got top 50 talent but statistically perform closer to the 100s.
I think eventually this will turn around for Mike Locksley, but not week 1 against a good West Virginia defense. Give me the Mountaineers for the Front Door!
Cincinnati -23
I don’t think Miami-Ohio will be able to score points in this game. I’m not really surprising anyone here by saying that and I’m sure I’m not surprising the odds makers in the desert. Here’s where I differ, Cincinnati’s offense was pretty good last year. For as much love as the defense got, the Bearcats averaged 37.5 points per game last year. And you know who was bringing that average down? Teams like Georgia (ever heard of em?) Tulsa, and Army. Not teams like Miami-Ohio.
I think Cincinnati will be able to name the final score in this one. And if I was a betting man (which I am), I’d say Cincinnati would like to name a score with a margin of victory of 23 or higher.
FDC: Alabama -19.5
Model likes Bama, I like Bama, public likes Bama. There’s no way I’m going to bet my own money hoping for Miami to outperform expectations.
The Guys were breaking this game down in our group text earlier this week. Since we have to make a pick we were debating each side ATS and the O/U. I think the game could play out a few ways: Bama blowout (Bama -19.5) Miami goes blow for blow with Bama (Over 61), Bama goes real conservative and slowly controls the game (Under 61). Out of those scenarios, I think the most likely is a Bama blowout.
You know they say… “you don’t get rich betting against Bama”. I hear ya, ROLL TIDE.
Iowa -4
This was 100% a Guy #1 pick. I did not look at the model nor can I remember what the model says about it. What I can tell you about this pick is as follows: Indiana is not a top 25 team (even if the polls tell you they are). Iowa is. Iowa is the home team.
I’m glad the Big 10 has been scheduling conference games early in the season. Iowa will dampen the Indiana hype this week.
FDC: Clemson -3
Normally this would be a sit back and relax game. I really don’t have a feel for how this game will play out. The model seems to indicate that it will go just like the odds makers planned.
Considering I got to make a pick for the Front Door Cup, I’ll take the better coach and root for the Tigers.
Kent State Vrs. Texas A&M U65.5
Kent State is a good team. They’re a high scoring Mid-American Conference team. Matter of fact, last year they led the nation in point per game. There was plenty of money to be made betting the over in a Kent State game last year. “Then why would you take the under G1?” Great question. Last year, the Golden Flashes played four games. Yup, four games against MAC opponents. I love watching some Tuesday or Wednesday night MAC’tion, but the MAC is probably three or four levels separated from the SEC.
A&M handles them in this game. I don’t trust Jimbo to cover a huge number, so I’ll take the under.