Finally! I had a winning week in the FDC. Currently, I’m only one pick out of first place. G2 better keep an eye out for the reigning champ. Side note – G2 asked if I was “insecure or something” cause I keep mentioning I’m the reigning champ. So I think I’ll look for more opportunities to squeeze it in here. Anyways… I’m coming for the cup and after ONE winning week, I can’t imagine I’d ever go back to being a loser. Even though I’m very good at it. Anyways… I’ve yet to go 2-0 in my non “Big 3” picks. But, a little more soul searching should help with the shoulda-coulda-woulda picks.
5-4 doesn’t sound as flashy as 8-3. Which I did last week (again “not a big deal”). But it’s certainly still making money. I’m not even going to tell you that the pure model picks hit at 42% and I’m not worried about it. If I were to do that, I’d probably sound like a broken record with a shit model and variance/luck is to blame for my success. BUT… I’m not going to say that. I’ll just say, my gut and eyes had a decent week sniffing out the winners from the model.
FDC: Oregon Vrs Ohio State U63.5 – W
This game had no business staying under. Both teams came out the gate slow. Not a single point was scored in the first quarter. But after that, nothing was stopping these offenses from scoring. I watched both teams put up 21 points in 10 minutes with ease. I had 6 touchdowns left and it was time to start sweating… The first three drives of the second half, 21 points in 7 minutes. More sweat…. The first three drives of the 4th quarter, 21 points in 7 minutes. Buckets of sweat… I thought the sweat would end quickly and I’d pay the bookie and get over it. But, a timely Oregon interception saved the day. No more points. 35-28. You hate to see it for the folks on the over. *cough G2 cough G3*
Our twitter account pretty much summed up the way the Guys in the Shed were watching this game:
Purdue -33.5 – W
Barely watched it. This one was in and out of the 4th screen. I was happy to see Purdue get out to a big lead, scoring on seven of their first eight drives. Never really a doubt. This is the shoulda-coulda-woulda pick for the FDC.
FDC: Air Force Vrs Navy U40.5 – W
No summary needed. These games just go under. 23-3
Temple Vrs Akron U52.5 – L
Should’ve listened to Bernie. In a packed 2:30 window, I didn’t get any eyes on it. From the game notes, it seems like the only thing I got right about this game was that Akron would get blown out. I thought I was being very sharp by taking the under instead of Temple. Maybe I’m just as dull as [insert name here]. <- You can put whatever friend you like to call dull.
Maybe this one’s on me for not babysitting it.
Georgia Southern +7 – L
I couldn’t even watch this one. It was not available in my market… I probably could have found a way to “NOT” watch this, but I didn’t. If I had to guess how I ended up losing this one, I’d guess the game went exactly the opposite of my predicted game plan.
Starting to see a trend here.
FDC: Texas A&M TT O33.5 – L
This one was very deflating. I felt very good about this one. Obviously, I thought it was one of my best 5 picks… I still think I would’ve been wrong if Haynes King didn’t get hurt. A&Ms running game did not look dominant. I spoke to an A&M insider (a guy from work who went to school there and watched the game) about this game. We both agreed the O-line has some cleaning up to do. With three great running backs in the stable, you’ve got to do better.
That recap right there just shows you how good of a loser I am. Any lesser gambler would blame Zach Calzada’s lackluster performance for this loss. But NOT me. I blame the entire team. Or I guess just the O-line.
FDC: Iowa +4.5 – W
It seemed like the wrong team was favored on this one. I even started to turn the second guessing wheels. However, as it turns out, this line was very wrong. Iowa was the significantly better team. Still not sure sure if this means Iowa is a power house who’s beaten 2 ranked teams OR if Indiana and Iowa State were significantly over-hyped. I think the latter is to blame. But… I’ve been wrong before. I’ll keep my eye on Iowa. They’ve been “automatic” for me two weeks in a row now.
SMU -22.5 – W
Boy oh boy. This one was a complete roller coaster.
SMU got off to a slow start and every time there was a sliver of hope, that same hope was extinguished within minutes. It wasn’t until the third quarter I started to get the tinglys as if we were going to go positive for the day. I had already given up on Texas (sorry for the spoiler). After two quick SMU scores and a UNT failed 2-pt conversion to start the 3rd quarter, I was doing the math in my head and counting scores. I only needed 14 unanswered.
It was game, set and match. Tanner Mordecai threw a gem on 4th and 4. Okay… it was a bit underthrown but the receiver could have signed a NIL deal, called a CPA, and completed his taxes before catching this ball. That’s how open he was. But, he dropped it… It was 7 points off the board. I was certain that was the dagger. Thankfully for me, the gambling Juju corrected itself with a big run with 7 minutes left. Mustangs by 23 🙂
FDC: Texas -7 – L
Texas… The eyes of the Shed were certainly on this game. This one was ugly. Another failed Direct Deposit for the Shed. Which now puts us at 0-2-1. That’s 0% for the math folks. I don’t really want to recap this game. If you think you have a better recap, I’d love to hear it. I can promise you, I’d post it.
But since I’m a phenomenal loser, I’ll take a stab at it. Texas got bullied. Couldn’t move the ball on offense. Arkansas came out the gates slow in the first quarter. But after that, they moved the ball at will and went up 16-0 at the half. Hudson Card struggled and by the time Casey Thompson gave this team a mild shot in the arm with some gutsy running, it was way too late. Razorbacks did there best to make sure Longhorns couldn’t claim “we’re back.”